Lockdowns

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Nicki

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So what was so predictable? Very very few people are blessed with being able to forcast the future?
Quite a lot of people are capable of using evidence of human behaviour in the past to predict how they will behave in the future given similar circumstances though.

Society, innovation and progress relies fundamentally on humans having this ability.
 

Andy

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Jul 28, 2013
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Cases under 20k for the first time in a while today.

So a sign that inflections are starting to fall and hopefully that trend will continue and we can go back to the tier system.

Deaths are still too high but a drop today down to 529, 69 less than yesterday. Remember though there’s a two week lag between infections and deaths so we’ll see that figure continue to drop if cases keep declining.

We’re doing better than France also, who are recording more than 1,000 deaths in a day.

Yet again the models used by the Government are grossly inaccurate. No faith in the governments scientists. If I was repeatedly this bad at my job, I’d be getting my P45
 

Ben

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Yet again the models used by the Government are grossly inaccurate. No faith in the governments scientists. If I was repeatedly this bad at my job, I’d be getting my P45
And another day in which the number of deaths has fallen.

Still too high but hopefully we’ll continue to see them fall. Cases around 10k lower than last Thursday’s figure.

And now there’s talk of a 25-day lockdown in January for the sake of having five days with family and friends over Christmas. I’d rather forsake Christmas than be in lockdown for longer.
 
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Ben

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Some more positive signs today.

- Infection rates are levelling off in England and Scotland and are decreasing in Wales and Northern Ireland, according to the ONS. R is also close to 1.

- A professor at NHS England has said the number of coronavirus hospital patients is also starting to level off, with health secretary Matt Hancock saying the second peak is flattening.

- A vaccine could be ready to be rolled out to elderly and vulnerable groups before Christmas, with it then being available to under 50s by January and the aim of everyone who wants it having it by April.

Normality by spring?
 

Ben

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United Kingdom Daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) Report · Friday 20th November.

20,252 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 1,473,508.

511 new deaths reported, giving a total of 54,286.

Last Friday’s figure was 27,301, so we’ve seen a drop in cases of almost 25 per cent.
 
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Andy

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United Kingdom Daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) Report · Friday 20th November.

20,252 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 1,473,508.

511 new deaths reported, giving a total of 54,286.

Last Friday’s figure was 27,301, so we’ve seen a drop in cases of almost 25 per cent.

Put you wont see the doom and bloomers like piers Morgan tweeting this
 
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Nicki

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If Jonathan van Tam had been a teacher, we’d have fewer armchair virologists and more people who understand predictive modelling.

Just saying.
 

Nicki

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Put you wont see the doom and bloomers like piers Morgan tweeting this
Doom and bloomers sounds like it should have been a really bad 70’s risqué comedy film!

But we knew what you meant... and probably even typed before autocorrect took over... :)
 
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Alan M

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Cases etc still rising down here. Different parts of the country are at different stages of the spread (Just as they were when they ended lockdown #1 based on London having got over the worst and ignoring that the NW for example was still in the middle of it)

On vaccines, Ben, don't get your hopes up about normality by spring - the number of doses which will be available in the Uk pre-Christmas is fairly low, and the roll-out after that will depend largely on (a) production capacity [with plenty of other countries also on the order books] (b) the ability of govt to organise a mass vaccination programme efficiently [no comment] (c) other countries also being catered for [true normality includes travel beyond these shores, and I for one do not have any work lined up overseas till next summer, and then only provisionally].

There have been many false dawns in the past 9 months, and there will be a few more yet.
 
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Ben

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Alan,

Appreciate vaccines will take time to pass safety checks, get approval and ultimately roll out to different sections of the population. Then you have the issue of how many people will actually take one.

So I’m under no illusions that a mass vaccination programme is going to take a while. But let’s hope for the sake of this country and for countries across the world, that a vaccine can be rolled out as fast as possible, so we can return to some form of normality in the not too distant future.

I think we all surely want that.
 

Andy

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London hasn’t seen a second wave (or ripple). The northwest is certainly on a steep downward slope now.

Time to go back to the regional restrictions approach.
 
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Phil Bradley

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Alan M

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That's not breaking news. It was a time-limited (in law) lockdown which would have needed a new law to extend it and which Johnson would never have countenanced.

And yes Ben, of course I greet all vaccines, I was merely trying to temper your suggestion of normality by spring (because it won't be ... summer perhaps)
 

Ben

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That's not breaking news. It was a time-limited (in law) lockdown which would have needed a new law to extend it and which Johnson would never have countenanced.

And yes Ben, of course I greet all vaccines, I was merely trying to temper your suggestion of normality by spring (because it won't be ... summer perhaps)
It’s breaking news in the sense that we didn’t know whether Johnson was going to push to extend the national lockdown or not. He’s opted for a tier system, which if you go off Matt Hancock’s comments during press conferences earlier in the week, wasn’t a given.
 

Andy

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BREAKING: The national lockdown will end on December 2 and be replaced by a strengthened tier system.

Good that the lockdown is finishing but will be interesting to see what things will be done to strengthen the tier system. Hope it’s not lockdown in all but name for some areas.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...l-be-strengthened-when-lockdown-ends-12138733

Slightly good news, but the reported tiers will be ridiculously over the top.

The Daily Mail article you posted if well worth a read for anyone brave enough not to be upset by the logo in the top left of their screen. Puts the situation in to perspective how how the government scientists have conned the public in fear fuelled frenzy.
 
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Knutsfordian

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I think the biggest problem that tier system will face when the lockdown ends is whether people people decide to comply , or not. There is talk that some restrictions will be increased within each tier, but it makes no difference if people decide to go their own way. I saw a number of interviews recently where people just said basically I don't care what the governments or scientists say, I am going home to my parents for Xmas and they can get stuffed. I suspect that's where many people are at and if they close the pubs people will just party at home, which have more risks than the pub!

So instead of threatening more lockdown, I think we would be better saying here's some basics do this and use common sense - but don't hold out much hope