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Lockdowns

Agree with that. The more the public feel as if they’re being treated like children, the less likely they are to comply, but you’re right, the government won’t take the use your common sense approach.

If we go off some of the media, the 10pm pub curfew will be extended to 11pm, so maybe an indication that Johnson is actually softening some restrictions? With Cummings gone (a well known supporter of strong lockdown measures), Johnson’s libertarian instincts may now come out more. You just know that if he weren’t the PM he’d be in that Covid Recovery Group calling for no more lockdowns.

Will be interesting to see what is strengthened and which areas will be in which tiers.
 
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I suspect he was bounced into this lockdown that's why he appears so luke warm about it in the HoC. That said it needs people to be sensitive to what's happening around them, and many are incapable of that sort of decision making, complain about mixed messaging and want know what the rules are
 
It goes back to the discussion of public health versus economy. Lets be clear there's going to be a hell of a price to pay for all the lockdowns and at the end of the day someone will have to pick up the bill. Who does that and when will become a bit clearer next week when public spending plans are released. Tax receipts are on the floor and spending has hit the ceiling, so it's a real conundrum to solve - not helped by the threat of further lockdowns in the new year. Understandable why the government wants to get vaccines out asap and hit 1m peeps per day.
 
Coronavirus cases down to 11,299 today. That’s some drop from 33k the other week.

It would appear the second wave has peaked.
 
You neglect to mention the number of deaths recorded, or indeed the numbers in hospital.

Dig deeper into the figures and you will notice that actual testing is way downover the past week or so on recent high levels, and below half of the fabled (but meaningless) testing capacity. Much less effort is currently being put into getting people to take a test, and much less effort is being made by people to seek out a test - in part because people with bills to pay and Christmas looming do not want to be told to isolate away from work on SSP at the ridiculously low level it is paid in the UK. Also see the Newsnight report from Liverpool last night.
 
Yes, I did see that there were 608 deaths, the highest for six months. Clearly that is far too high and tragic but there is a lag period and deaths should drop in line with reduced cases.

Interesting to note that those in favour of a national lockdown approach tend to put reduced cases down to less testing, and those on the other side of the argument will say more tests are being carried out.

As ever there’s a context to the figures which you don’t really see but 11,299 compared to 33k and a stubborn average of around 20k, has to be seen as big progress and justifies the governments decision not to extend the lockdown, also calling into question whether there’s a need for these tougher tiers, as Professor Carl Heneghan has suggested on Twitter.
 
Ben said:
Interesting to note that those in favour of a national lockdown approach tend to put reduced cases down to less testing, and those on the other side of the argument will say more tests are being carried out.
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Apart from passing the comment that we have never really had a national lockdown (and certainly not with this latest lockdown lite), I'd point out that what "those on the other side of the argument" say about the number of tests doesn't interest me. What interests me is the actual published figure which show numbers of tests being carried out declining.

But as stated before, unless you are going to test everyone and repeatedly/regularly, it doesn't actually matter how many tests are discovered if you are then not going to take the next steps and trace, isolate and support contacts. That has been true since March, and that is an aspect of test& trace which the govt (or its appointed bodies) have never got to grips with.
 
Alan M said:
But as stated before, unless you are going to test everyone and repeatedly/regularly, it doesn't actually matter how many tests are discovered if you are then not going to take the next steps and trace, isolate and support contacts. That has been true since March, and that is an aspect of test& trace which the govt (or its appointed bodies) have never got to grips with.
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With track and trace the assumption is that 100% of people are willing and want to be traced. I don't think that they do. Far from it. People I know are going to great lengths not to be tracked and traced, so despite the best efforts of the service, its never going to happen

However at last there seems to be some realisation that people need to use some common sense and that's the direction people are being pointed over the Xmas period. The only thing that reduces cases is reduced social contact
 
Ben said:
Coronavirus cases down to 11,299 today. That’s some drop from 33k the other week.

It would appear the second wave has peaked.
Click to expand...
Good news indeed and shows that the restrictions- however unpalatable- work. But it would be wrong to read too much into one days figures. Hospitals are still near bursting point and with the restrictions to be lifted at Christmas, a third wave in the New Year is almost a certainty
 
Ben said:
Yes, I did see that there were 608 deaths, the highest for six months. Clearly that is far too high and tragic but there is a lag period and deaths should drop in line with reduced cases.

Interesting to note that those in favour of a national lockdown approach tend to put reduced cases down to less testing, and those on the other side of the argument will say more tests are being carried out.

As ever there’s a context to the figures which you don’t really see but 11,299 compared to 33k and a stubborn average of around 20k, has to be seen as big progress and justifies the governments decision not to extend the lockdown, also calling into question whether there’s a need for these tougher tiers, as Professor Carl Heneghan has suggested on Twitter.
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Ben - are you for real? Cases in Greater Manchester were racing away just a few weeks ago. Tougher restrictions introduced and cases go down because we humans - who spread the virus to one another very readily - are having less contact with one another. The evidence is overwhelming.
 
James Wood said:
Good news indeed and shows that the restrictions- however unpalatable- work. But it would be wrong to read too much into one days figures. Hospitals are still near bursting point and with the restrictions to be lifted at Christmas, a third wave in the New Year is almost a certainty
Click to expand...

Correlation doesn’t imply causation.

Nations without such draconian measure see the same trend
 
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Tier 2 for us & Liverpool but Manchester in Tier3
 
What doesn't seem very clear, is whether step 3-6 clubs in tier 3 areas will be able to have fans in their grounds. If not, then you would have to question whether the league will be able to restart, given that almost half of the nwfcl prem clubs are in a tier 3 area.
 
Well if that is the case, then I cannot see how the leagues at those levels can restart. Surely we cannot have a situation where clubs who are able to have fans can play, whilst those clubs who cannot have fans cannot. Of course it may be possible if tier 3 measures are only imposed for a short time, but if this continues for any length of time, then clubs currently in tier 3 areas, would be at a distinct disadvantage to clubs in lower tiers, having to play a lot more games in the time that is left. Also what will happen in the vase, if a club currently in tier 3 has a home tie, but is unable to play it because they cannot have spectators, will they have to play it away (if their opponents are in tier 1 or 2) or will they have to forfeit, given that our fa are hellbent on completing rounds.
Of course, (and I know it is still early days) some guidance from the fa will hopefully make things a little clearer.
 
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