- Dec 18, 2014
- 1,999
- 1,050
This is from the Lancet and endorsed by 300 scientists
........ the control of the spread is most effective at low case numbers. Easing restrictions while accepting higher case numbers is a short-sighted strategy that will lead to another wave, and thus to higher costs for society as a whole. Testing and tracing capacities are limited: only with sufficiently low case numbers can the test–trace–isolate–support strategy quickly and efficiently help mitigate the spread.
Hence, milder and more targeted physical distancing measures are sufficient, and schools and businesses can stay open.
...................., contact tracing and quarantine is not feasible at high infection prevalence. Assuming a state with 300 new cases per million per day, ten contacts per case, and 10 days quarantine: then 3% of the population would need to be in quarantine, resulting in strong reductions of the workforce.
What this clearly highlights (and I have not seen it in print before), but some thing that I have mentioned a number of times previously is that track and trace is only ever effective when there are low instances of infection. So all this ranting (especially by the Labour front bench) about the failures of track and trace is just hot air. People know that beyond a certain point trying to track and trace is completely ineffective. So having Circuit breaker lockdowns to fix track and trace would never have worked - but has Steer Kalmer ever put his hand up to acknowledge his flagship policy for managing Covid was twaddle? Errm didn't think so !!
........ the control of the spread is most effective at low case numbers. Easing restrictions while accepting higher case numbers is a short-sighted strategy that will lead to another wave, and thus to higher costs for society as a whole. Testing and tracing capacities are limited: only with sufficiently low case numbers can the test–trace–isolate–support strategy quickly and efficiently help mitigate the spread.
Hence, milder and more targeted physical distancing measures are sufficient, and schools and businesses can stay open.
...................., contact tracing and quarantine is not feasible at high infection prevalence. Assuming a state with 300 new cases per million per day, ten contacts per case, and 10 days quarantine: then 3% of the population would need to be in quarantine, resulting in strong reductions of the workforce.
What this clearly highlights (and I have not seen it in print before), but some thing that I have mentioned a number of times previously is that track and trace is only ever effective when there are low instances of infection. So all this ranting (especially by the Labour front bench) about the failures of track and trace is just hot air. People know that beyond a certain point trying to track and trace is completely ineffective. So having Circuit breaker lockdowns to fix track and trace would never have worked - but has Steer Kalmer ever put his hand up to acknowledge his flagship policy for managing Covid was twaddle? Errm didn't think so !!