Lockdowns

[Edge]

Covid ICU cases in northern England could pass April peak in 22 days, MPs told

Leaked slides suggest hospitality accounted for 41% of linked Covid cases among under-30s

www.theguardian.com

MPs were also shown early research by Public Health England suggesting that bars, pubs and restaurants accounted for 41% of cases in which two or more under-30s had visited the same venue in the week before testing positive. This fell to a quarter of infections across all age groups, the MPs were told.

Daily Mail also quotes the same figures

 

[Joe Reacher]

Seems that's not quite right according to Chris Whitty.................

"Chris Whitty the chief medical officer, shared some slides with colleagues from the North yesterday which demonstrate that clearly social interactions in restaurants and cafes is about 30% of the infections."

Chris Wiity's slide related to data taken from a study by the US-based Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Taken from answers to a questionaire sent out to US citizens who have tested positive for Covid19. Not scientific evidence.

Look at the official figures form PHE.
How many different areas are grouped in to the Leisure/Community group?

 

[Knutsfordian]

Chris Wiity's slide related to data taken from a study by the US-based Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Taken from answers to a questionaire sent out to US citizens who have tested positive for Covid19. Not scientific evidence.

Look at the official figures form PHE.
How many different areas are grouped in to the Leisure/Community group?

Doesn't make sense really. If people are maintaining social distance and for the most part only catching infections within the home - how are households getting infected? Just asking for a friend.

Can only assume that people aren't admitting where they have been - other than home? I will take a punt and say that people unsurprisingly aren't being truthful when asked where they have been. In which case track and trace isn't worth the digital paper its written on .

 

[Andy]

NHS test and trace figure suggest around 5%

Whittys figures were derived using just 97 pubs. You can get data to say anything you want if you manipulate it enough.

 

[Knutsfordian]

Yep understand what you are saying - but I am coming to the conclusion that people are not being honest about where they have been and how they got infected

If we accept that people are social distancing and not getting infected in pubs etc - where are households picking up the infection? Its a huge unanswered question

 

[Joe Reacher]

Yep understand what you are saying - but I am coming to the conclusion that people are not being honest about where they have been and how they got infected

If we accept that people are social distancing and not getting infected in pubs etc - where are households picking up the infection? Its a huge unanswered question

From their children going to schools, colleges, universities and the travel involved in getting there.
A huge majority of children and young adults do not display symptoms.

 

[Andy]

The ONS survey should that the biggest rise is in students, starting back at school and university.

Possible that once universities have been back a few weeks they will begin to decline?

It’s been said before, it’s better that the virus spreads through the university halls in October through the young, than them bringing it hike to elderly relatives in December

 

[Knutsfordian]

From their children going to schools, colleges, universities and the travel involved in getting there.
A huge majority of children and young adults do not display symptoms.

But the numbers for travel are as low as the numbers for pubs etc? So if you have children going home from school and infecting lots of people, does it not follow that people coming come from pubs could also infect loads of people too?

Or - you could argue that if you are correct and all the households are being infected by children/students travelling and then going home - given that schools are staying open the number of infections will not decline.

Can anyone really make sense of any of this?

 

[Edge]

Tier 2 it is then, but it doesn't appear to stop football at our level - subject to CWAC.

 

[Joe Reacher]

Or - you could argue that if you are correct and all the households are being infected by children/students travelling and then going home - given that schools are staying open the number of infections will not decline.

There will be a half term holiday in a couple of weeks. Children will not be going to school. Cases will decline. The government will say that their measures are working! (until the following week when they go up again!)

Tier 2 it is then, but it doesn't appear to stop football at our level - subject to CWAC.

Tier 2 government advice - Residents are advised against attending outdoor amateur and semi-professional sporting events as spectators.

 

[Edge]

Although https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-c...you-need-to-know#local-covid-alert-level-high says

exercise classes and organised sport can continue to take place outdoors.

 

[James Wood]

Further to what Ben said, evidence suggests that not only to lockdowns just delay herd immunity, but actually are leaving vulnerable more open to the virus.

The number of people in hospital is now higher than before the full lockdown in March. So much for the heard immunity theory then...

 

[Andy]

The number of people in hospital is now higher than before the full lockdown in March. So much for the heard immunity theory then...

So much for Herd Immunity?

Bars are packed, Shops are packed and people’s mental health is in top condition in Sweden. There is no sign of a second wave there.

Life could have been like that here now if the Government didn’t wet the bed in March.

And I Hate this image of compassion that do-gooder lockdown lovers paint themselves as. This is what they’re doing to the people they claim to be caring about. No doubt they have good intentions, but I wish they’d just think about the consequences

 

[Knutsfordian]

So much for Herd Immunity?

Bars are packed, Shops are packed and people’s mental health is in top condition in Sweden. There is no sign of a second wave there.

Life could have been like that here now if the Government didn’t wet the bed in March.

And I Hate this image of compassion that do-gooder lockdown lovers paint themselves as. This is what they’re doing to the people they claim to be caring about. No doubt they have good intentions, but I wish they’d just think about the consequences
View attachment 2054

The Sweden example is not given universal acclaim

Covid-19: Comparing Sweden’s response with the UK’s is “misleading,” experts argue

Sweden’s response to covid-19 should not be used to argue the case for a population immunity strategy in the UK, the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Independent SAGE) has argued. In a briefing paper published on 25 September, Independent SAGE noted that Sweden is often...

www.bmj.com

 

[Andy]

Then there is experts that say Sweden should be the model for everyone to follow.

Stockholm in terms of size, population, and employment type is similar to the city of Manchester.

We all abided by the first Lockdown. It hasn’t worked, there’s no evidence it’s worked to any effect in France or Spain either.

People won’t listen to more restrictions.

 

[James Wood]

Then there is experts that say Sweden should be the model for everyone to follow.

Stockholm in terms of size, population, and employment type is similar to the city of Manchester.

We all abided by the first Lockdown. It hasn’t worked, there’s no evidence it’s worked to any effect in France or Spain either.

People won’t listen to more restrictions.

Sorry Andy but all the stats show that when we went into lockdown the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths reduced dramatically. When social mixing increased the number of cases increased - like night follows day. That is what happens with viruses and diseases. They thrive where people mix.
It is clear that SAGE were recommending a short ‘circuit break’ in September but Johnson appears to have ignored their advice. So much for his government ‘following the science’.

Another opportunity lost and we are now reaping the rewards with cases and hospitalisations increasing, exacerbated by our far from ‘World Beating’, over centralised Serco managed T&T system

 

[Knutsfordian]

The trouble is that you can't go with what might be best, lest it kills thousands more people. Who wants that on their conscience? Ministers like Matt Hancock have been accused of murder because of decisions made early in the pandemic. There is a point at which people will not take undue risks because of the consequences. We can't have it both ways.

With regard to a 2-3 week total lockdown, the impact on jobs and services would be disastrous. As the last lockdown showed its easy to shut everything down, but getting it started up again is a nightmare. Add to that the lost education, further job losses and the impact would be economically catastrophic.

There is also an element, I think, of the science community covering their backsides so that they can be seen to be not to blame for any consequences. After the surge in the spring, the scientists got hammered with some MPs wanting Whitty and co sacked.

We will never know what decisions other people may have made, but there is nothing to suggest that the proposals from the opposition parties would really have cut much ice and the outcome been completely different.

There are also too many media commentators winding people up with what they think is wrong, without really looking at what the impact is of their comments and the mixed messaging they are responsible for. Across the media this morning there is no clarity. News programmes are pro and then anti lock down almost in the same breath, with presenters like PIers Morgan seemingly forgetting some of the horrendous attacks he made on the government in the spring. So what we have is government trying to steer a path that controls the pandemic, gives some support for people and businesses but keeps the economy afloat.

Finally test, track and trace - you can't have 500 separate local systems - it just would not work. I think they have belatedly realised that they need more input locally with tracing, so hopefully that will see some improvement. However, I think the greatest problem is the data. Garbage in, garbage out as the old IT saying used to be. I remain to be convinced that people are honestly completing all the track and trace details.

 

[Andy]

Sorry Andy but all the stats show that when we went into lockdown the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths reduced dramatically. When social mixing increased the number of cases increased - like night follows day. That is what happens with viruses and diseases. They thrive where people mix.
It is clear that SAGE were recommending a short ‘circuit break’ in September but Johnson appears to have ignored their advice. So much for his government ‘following the science’.

Another opportunity lost and we are now reaping the rewards with cases and hospitalisations increasing, exacerbated by our far from ‘World Beating’, over centralised Serco managed T&T system

They did, but they also went down in Nations that used common sense rather than lockdowns.

The reality of lockdown for Covid is the medicine is more deadly than the disease. Even the WHO are advising against lockdowns.

SAGE did indeed want a full lockdown, and thank christ Rishi Sunak Opposed it. The only person in Westminister seemingly looking at the bigger picture.

 

[pdw]

Is the wearing of masks at 74 a requirement/condition from CWAC does anybody know.

 

[Edge]

Is the wearing of masks at 74 a requirement/condition from CWAC does anybody know.

I believe it is.