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Lockdowns

I'm not sure what the government's strategy is.
Are they trying to eliminate the virus, contain it pending vaccine or a herd immunity plan.

Herd immunity needs an strict lockdown on those at high risk as well.

Like I said I've no idea what the best plan is.
 
Anyone with even the most minimal knowledge of IT systems such as me know that MS Access would have been far more suitable for this task than Excel. We are paying Serco £Ms to set up and manage this system so one might have expected that one of the reasons they were given the contract was because of their knowledge and experience in setting up and running such systems. Alas, what we have got is something that is far from ‘World Beating’ and is based on an outmoded version of MS Excel.
Now that you couldn’t make up...
It was public Health England that screwed up not the data providers. The data files they collected from the providers were being combined to provide MIS and that's where the cock up occurred. Its no consolation, but its not just about whether it was a privatised company or not. Some poor systems admin or developer screwed up and its national news. That's how sad we have become
 
Look at the infection line for the UK.
Level throughout August during Eat Out to Help Out and then cases rise steeply in September.
Going out for meals did not cause a rise in infections.
I wonder what changed - could it be a return to school and University?
 

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Look at the infection line for the UK.
Level throughout August during Eat Out to Help Out and then cases rise steeply in September.
Going out for meals did not cause a rise in infections.
I wonder what changed - could it be a return to school and University?
and travel
 
Look at the infection line for the UK.
Level throughout August during Eat Out to Help Out and then cases rise steeply in September.
Going out for meals did not cause a rise in infections.
I wonder what changed - could it be a return to school and University?

Only around 5% of infections are being traced back to the hospitality industry. Draw your own conclusions as to why Politicians and Authoritarian lockdown lovers are so keen to hammer them.
 
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That's were test & trace should step in & explain - Uni is certainly a large feature, a few food processing plants have had outbreaks as well.
I think a few care homes as well

Without the full data you can't understand where to focus any lockdown so you end up with the sledgehammer approach we have now.
 
Only around 5% of infections are being traced back to the hospitality industry. Draw your own conclusions as to why Politicians and Authoritarian lockdown lovers are so keen to hammer them.

I think some of the measures are not in themselves designed to prevent infections spreading, but to change behaviours. In the good old days when pubs closed at 10.30, people supped up and went home. Which I think what was the intended outcome with the changes to bar closing times. Trouble is now, people have had the freedom to drink and eat as late as they like and so don't just go home.
 
It makes no sense when supermarkets / off-licences are still open & selling alcohol after 10pm.
That just encourages the breaking of the Rule of 6 with people either taking beer & friends home or just congregating outside.
 
The 10pm curfew makes no sense at all. The new rules banning alcohol inside Scottish pubs is even stupider. You do wonder whether these people live in the real world and it feels like they’re trying to take the fun out of everything we do and control us.
Good to see a nice discussion developing though!
 
An Indian restaurant in Warrington wrote in the Guardian how the 10pm curfew has hit their profits by something like 60%.

Busiest time for curry houses for example is 9pm to 12pm.

The restaurant is socially distanced, following all the correct procedures. Just as safe being in there at 11pm than it is a 6pm.

the curfew is crippling business. Of all the U-turns from the government, it’s unbelievable they won’t reverse this ridiculous decision.
 
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An Indian restaurant in Warrington wrote in the Guardian how the 10pm curfew has hit their profits by something like 60%.

Busiest time for curry houses for example is 9pm to 12pm.

The restaurant is socially distanced, following all the correct procedures. Just as safe being in there at 11pm than it is a 6pm.

the curfew is crippling business. Of all the U-turns from the government, it’s unbelievable they won’t reverse this ridiculous decision.
Agree and it’s only encouraging people to congregate outside and go to the offie and drink at home and break the rule of 6 as Edge has said. A self-defeating rule and yet when challenged to publish the science behind it by Keir Starmer at PMQs, blustering Boris couldn’t give him an answer. All this policy is doing is hurting local businesses that have already been disproportionately targeted and scapegoated for spreading the virus, even though only a small percentage are responsible for infections. Jobs and livelihoods are on the line here and yet the government won’t scrap its nonsensical rule.

I fear though that the government will be soon closing pubs and restaurants full stop in the north, again further encouraging people to drink at home with family and friends. It’s stupid.
 
Agree and it’s only encouraging people to congregate outside and go to the offie and drink at home and break the rule of 6 as Edge has said. A self-defeating rule and yet when challenged to publish the science behind it by Keir Starmer at PMQs, blustering Boris couldn’t give him an answer. All this policy is doing is hurting local businesses that have already been disproportionately targeted and scapegoated for spreading the virus, even though only a small percentage are responsible for infections. Jobs and livelihoods are on the line here and yet the government won’t scrap its nonsensical rule.

I fear though that the government will be soon closing pubs and restaurants full stop in the north, again further encouraging people to drink at home with family and friends. It’s stupid.
because what they really want you to do is either not go out or have a couple of drinks and then go home

Another issue is that Covid cases are higher than the confirmed cases in the first wave, but that's because no one new how many cases there really were. But again councils and Health authorities are desperate to keep infection rates and death rates down whilst trying to maintain some economic activity
 
I sit in the camp of thinking some form of lockdown is needed but they haven’t found the right balance. In defence of the morons in charge that is difficult with our society that contains a significant portion of other morons who just can’t act responsibly.

A well-managed restaurant/pub is not high risk. The knob-heads outside it are. The hospitality industry seems like it might be taking an unfair hit. Managed properly with responsible adults for customers it’s good for the economy and it’s good for mental wellbeing.

Given the mental health issues associated with shielding then it also feels ethically and morally wrong to condemn a group in society who already have physical health issues to further isolation.

These aren’t just the elderly so I’ve no idea how anyone would classify people as vulnerable. Plenty of fit and healthy people have died from CV-19. If they happened to have an unknown underlying condition they would not have been classified as vulnerable.

I personally know quite a few young, healthy people and their family members who have contracted it. It’s not just a bout of flu and as of yet we have no idea what the long-term health impacts are on those who have had it. Until we know that, herd immunity could be a dangerous strategy with huge ongoing healthcare cost implications.

I’m not an expert though so I will happily put my trust in the balance of good scientific evidence. I typically don’t look to the UK press for that though. Going direct to source will give you a better picture. To the best of my knowledge, nobody else on here is an expert either but it’s interesting reading the different views.

As for Track and Trace - a basic Excel error - almost predictable given the way ‘the project’ has been managed. No excuses. I’m just surprised nobody has blamed Corbyn yet.
 
I'm not sure what the government's strategy is.
Are they trying to eliminate the virus, contain it pending vaccine or a herd immunity plan.

Herd immunity needs an strict lockdown on those at high risk as well.

Like I said I've no idea what the best plan is.
Let’s not run before we can walk. Them knowing what their strategy is would be a good first step.
 
I sit in the camp of thinking some form of lockdown is needed but they haven’t found the right balance. In defence of the morons in charge that is difficult with our society that contains a significant portion of other morons who just can’t act responsibly.

A well-managed restaurant/pub is not high risk. The knob-heads outside it are. The hospitality industry seems like it might be taking an unfair hit. Managed properly with responsible adults for customers it’s good for the economy and it’s good for mental wellbeing.

Given the mental health issues associated with shielding then it also feels ethically and morally wrong to condemn a group in society who already have physical health issues to further isolation.

These aren’t just the elderly so I’ve no idea how anyone would classify people as vulnerable. Plenty of fit and healthy people have died from CV-19. If they happened to have an unknown underlying condition they would not have been classified as vulnerable.

I personally know quite a few young, healthy people and their family members who have contracted it. It’s not just a bout of flu and as of yet we have no idea what the long-term health impacts are on those who have had it. Until we know that, herd immunity could be a dangerous strategy with huge ongoing healthcare cost implications.

I’m not an expert though so I will happily put my trust in the balance of good scientific evidence. I typically don’t look to the UK press for that though. Going direct to source will give you a better picture. To the best of my knowledge, nobody else on here is an expert either but it’s interesting reading the different views.

As for Track and Trace - a basic Excel error - almost predictable given the way ‘the project’ has been managed. No excuses. I’m just surprised nobody has blamed Corbyn yet.
“In a meeting chaired by England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, on Thursday, MPs from the north and the Midlands were warned that some hospitals there could see even more Covid patients in intensive care units than during the spring peak within 22 days if no further action was taken.“

The stats on BBC NWT would seem to confirm that we are already at that point. If Boris and his cabal don’t take decisive action soon - as they failed to do in March - then this will have significant impacts on the health of many and more importantly the ability of the NHS to respond to the forthcoming winter
 
Agree and it’s only encouraging people to congregate outside and go to the offie and drink at home and break the rule of 6 as Edge has said. A self-defeating rule and yet when challenged to publish the science behind it by Keir Starmer at PMQs, blustering Boris couldn’t give him an answer. All this policy is doing is hurting local businesses that have already been disproportionately targeted and scapegoated for spreading the virus, even though only a small percentage are responsible for infections. Jobs and livelihoods are on the line here and yet the government won’t scrap its nonsensical rule.

I fear though that the government will be soon closing pubs and restaurants full stop in the north, again further encouraging people to drink at home with family and friends. It’s stupid.
You might be surprised at this guys but I do agree with you that there appears to be little in the way of cast iron evidence to link the curfew to a reduction in cases. This was - as ever - a populist, Headline grabbing stunt by Boris and chums to try to convince people that they were being proactive re this matter
 
I think the curfew needs to be taken in conjunction with other measures. For example if you go somewhere that is busy after chucking out time and you can't socially distance,, either don/t go, go somewhere else or leave early and go straight home. It's not an invitation to drink until the last minute and/or hang about with all your mates. Tough for young people but pretty obvious really.

The consensus across countries is that locking down, restricting social interaction at all levels is key to minimising infections. One minute we want to do what's been done abroad and then in the next breath go our own way

The discussions are not being helped by the metro mayors shouting the odds about what is wrong with the restrictions but not really demonstrating any workable alternatives. More test and trace might let us know what has already happened, but it doesn't prevent what is about to happen. It allows us to see the scale of the problem - but we still have to take action to save lives
 
I think the curfew needs to be taken in conjunction with other measures. For example if you go somewhere that is busy after chucking out time and you can't socially distance,, either don/t go, go somewhere else or leave early and go straight home. It's not an invitation to drink until the last minute and/or hang about with all your mates. Tough for young people but pretty obvious really.

The consensus across countries is that locking down, restricting social interaction at all levels is key to minimising infections. One minute we want to do what's been done abroad and then in the next breath go our own way

The discussions are not being helped by the metro mayors shouting the odds about what is wrong with the restrictions but not really demonstrating any workable alternatives. More test and trace might let us know what has already happened, but it doesn't prevent what is about to happen. It allows us to see the scale of the problem - but we still have to take action to save lives
Andy Burnham has suggested that if a full lockdown is introduced locally, the current furlough arrangements should be extended. Not shouting the odds - a sensible proposal methinks
 
Andy Burnham has suggested that if a full lockdown is introduced locally, the current furlough arrangements should be extended. Not shouting the odds - a sensible proposal methinks
And there's also been suggestions from some others that the lockdown is futile and will cost jobs

The crux will come with how much the additional furlough would cost. I am sure that the government would rather pay benefits than salaries but time will tell if they can find the finance to support furlough. Its also pretty hard on the genuine unemployed if they are on benefits whilst others are being paid subsidised salaries for jobs that are carrying on in name only.

Going back to the question of whether to lock down or not, are we really asking too much of our elected representatives? Have we got the right to ask them to balance people's lives against the value of businesses? I know that many commentators over the past few days have gone full tilt against lockdown, letting the young run free and keeping business going - but what's the price worth paying to save someone's business or job? Is another 10,000 deaths a price worth paying? Who will be "held to account" if it goes above and beyond the expected level. Do we have any right to do that to people who are tasked with having to make a decision on our behalf? What happens if we find out long term Covid results in a long lingering death in 20 years time with respiratory disease and will go on to kill thousands more? I don't have the answers and I suspect no other contributor will either, but I do know that I would not take on any of the roles we ask others to do before trying to break them with excoriating personal attacks and criticism.

Earlier in the year, many folks were crying out for an enquiry to get underway as quickly as possible. Primarily I think so that blame could be heaped on those held responsible for the excess deaths so far. Had that happened the result may well have been we would have been forced into lock down much earlier in this 2nd wave, and we would already be fastened in our homes. My point being that the current discussion about whether to lock down or not, the impact on non covid deaths etc would be immaterial. Changing attitudes towards covid and what's acceptable (or not) have a along way to run, which shows the futility of the argument to have that enquiry before this pandemic is over.
 
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Only around 5% of infections are being traced back to the hospitality industry. Draw your own conclusions as to why Politicians and Authoritarian lockdown lovers are so keen to hammer them.
Seems that's not quite right according to Chris Whitty.................

"Chris Whitty the chief medical officer, shared some slides with colleagues from the North yesterday which demonstrate that clearly social interactions in restaurants and cafes is about 30% of the infections."
 
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