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Promotion Run-In: The Stats

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Steve Rees-Smith

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Aug 3, 2013
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With all NWCFL Premier Division sides now having 10-15 matches remaining, I've put together a spreadsheet to track matches played, current points, goal difference (GD), matches remaining, available points, and points per game (PPG).

This has been updated following last night's victory for Runcorn Town over Longridge Town and ahead of a couple of key fixtures within the next 10 days (Bootle v Rylands, Longridge v Bootle), plus many more clashes between the promotion hopefuls later in the month.

As the table suggests, Bootle are currently our main rivals for top spot. However, take a look at their next six league fixtures over a four-week period: Rylands (H), Longridge (A), Irlam (A), Vics (H), Skelmersdale (A), Irlam (H).

It could all change very quickly for the sides trying desperately to finish in that top three come the end of April.

Screen Shot 2020-02-06 at 11.50.39.png
 
30 points from 14 will guarantee us a promotion spot then.
Probably a bit less but can't get my head around the maths for that - beat Longridge & it's 29 & 27 if we beat Rylands I think but really not sure
 
92 pts on current stats = top 3, so +32 guarantees it. But all will change as teams play each other and their maximum possible points decreases.
 
As of 10th Feb and ahead of the midweek fixtures. 92 points is the maximum that could be achieved by a side finishing in third, meaning we require at the very most 29 more (nine wins, two draws) from our remaining 13 matches to guarantee a promotion place. Of course, that figure will come down as those in contention play each other/drop points.

Following their FA Vase exit at the weekend Longridge Town host Burscough (seventh in the form table) on Wednesday night, before a huge clash with Bootle on Saturday. Rylands welcome Skem while we're in cup action at Maine Road. Charnock are not in action as they've played more than anyone else.

Screen Shot 2020-02-10 at 15.08.51.png
 
If Bootle v Longridge is a draw then the pack max will be 90/90/89
If there's a victor then it's 92/89/89

That assumes Lonridge beat Burscough & Rylands defeat Skem
 
89 points is the highest that can be achieved by a team finishing third if one of the top three is not us.
 
Updated table following last night's results (Hanley Town earned a valuable point against Runcorn Town in the other game, while Longridge Town v Burscough was postponed). Longridge still have 14 matches to play - if they win their two games in hand then they can also go within eight points of us. Interestingly, their PPG is only marginally better than Rylands in third, who currently sit atop the form table.

As Edge and PaulF have pointed out above, Bootle and Longridge still have to play eachother, so we know for certain that only one of these can possibly reach a maximum of 92. We also host Longridge in March, which again directly impacts upon the maximum points available for both sides.

As 89 is the highest that can be achieved by a side finishing third then we now require (at the very most) 25 from a possible 36 to guarantee a promotion place. In other words - and not wanting to rest on our laurels or count any chickens just yet - even if others in the chasing pack win ALL of their remaining matches (highly unlikely) we can afford to drop 11 points in our remaining dozen matches and still gain promotion.

We now have no league fixture until Saturday 22nd (home to Burscough), so I suppose there's plenty to ponder in the interim as those below us try to close the gap.

Side note - after last night's result the highest Vics can possibly finish this season is 9th.

Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 15.40.08.png
 
Rylands dropping two points today means they can only reach 87 now.

24 from 12 required for us which would mean we could gain promotion on Easter Monday but given that we play Longridge & Rylands before then that's probably not correct.

Rylands host Longridge next Saturday. This will be Longridges first game in three weeks since their Vase exit.
 
That side note about Vics' highest position 9th is sadly not true - it s based solely on a comparison of maximum points.
 
Just tried to do some maths around the possible points combos but failed miserably.

There are 4 games between the 4 main challengers:-
Rylands v Longridge Town (next weekend)
1874 v Longridge Town
Rylands v 1874
Bootle v Longridge Town

And that's 81 possible combinations of results I believe so gave up with the sums

Longridge also have to play the 2 sides above them, Ashton/Charnock & Runcorn who are one place below.


EDIT - Found a site that gave the 81 combos...
Worst case seems to be we'll need 87, best case 84 - assuming every team wins all their other matches
 
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Bootle were beaten by an improving Skelmersdale team today.
 
Longridge 92
Bootle 89
Rylands 87
 
josh89 said:
Yh it does to an extent but an 11 point lead at this stage would be huge for us
Click to expand...

I'd say the pressure is on Longridge. They've not played for a month & are playing catchup.
After our experience a couple of years ago I'd rather have the points than games in hand.

Bootle have lost 3 of their last 4 now
Rylands are probably 2nd favourites to go up with us now, with Bootle 3rd?
 
1874 11 games left 67 pts max 100
Bootle 11 left 56 pts max 89
Longridge 13 left 50 pts max 89
Rylands 9 left 60 pts max 87

Max of 21 points needed - but actually less due to the matches against each other.
 
Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 13.25.29.png

Only one of Bootle and Longridge Town can potentially get to 89pts, as they play each other in a fortnight (18th). If they play out a draw then the maximum they can both reach - which would require winning all remaining games - will be 87 (the same as Rylands). We head to Rylands the following Saturday (21st), which again directly affects the maximum points available for both sides. Rylands and Longridge meet on Tues 31st, meaning only one of them can possibly reach 87 or 89 respectively.

Due to our far superior goal difference (it's highly unlikely that any of our three main promotion rivals can possibly overturn a deficit of 22-33 goals with so few games remaining), then worst case scenario is 20 more points (six wins, two draws from 11 matches) will be the absolute most we'll need to guarantee promotion. As we're now 11pts (plus +25 GD) clear of third, with Longridge only able to reach a maximum of 56 from 27, you could argue that we've now built a considerable cushion and the pressure is most definitely on others not to drop even further behind.

Last season the league was won with 91pts, with 78pts enough for third. The previous season (2017-18) saw Runcorn Linnets crowned champions with 100pts and 93pts only good enough for third, but crucially there were 23 teams in the league then so those tallies include six games more.

Realistically, due to the aforementioned matches against each other (and by doing various forecasts based on the below), I expect promotion will be clinched by the time we head to Padiham following our Macron Cup Semi Final Second Leg. It could well come earlier than that if our rivals slip up further in the next three to four weeks. Tough matches next up for Rylands and Bootle, while Litherland have taken four points from their last two outings away at Rylands (1-1) and home to Congleton (3-0), so certainly won't be a pushover for Longridge.

Run-ins for main promotion candidates (PPG of 2.00+):
1874 - Winsford (A), Barnoldswick Town (H), Burscough (H), Rylands (A), Squires Gate (H), Whitchurch Alport (H), Padiham (A), Irlam (A), Northwich Victoria (H), Avro (H), Congleton Town (A)

Rylands - Whitchurch Alport (A), Congleton Town (A), 1874 Northwich (H), Longridge Town (H), Hanley Town (H), Barnoldswick Town (A), Runcorn Town (A), Burscough (H), Winsford United (H)

Bootle - Irlam (H), Winsford (A), Longridge Town (A) Congleton Town (H), Northwich Victoria (H), Irlam (A), Avro (A), Charnock Richard (H), Litherland REMYCA (A), Barnoldswick Town (A), Padiham (H)

Longridge Town - Litherland REMYCA (H), Ashton Athletic (A), Bootle (H), Runcorn Town (H), Burscough (H), Whitchurch Alport (H), Rylands (A), Charnock Richard (A), Squires Gate (H), Avro (H), Squires Gate (A), Congleton Town (H), Barnoldswick Town (H)
 
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