Lockdowns

[Alan M]

The June target became September when Raab was asked about it this morning. And that's an "offer" of the "first dose". Beware of wording when it comes to govt targets - with testing it became "testing capacity" rather than actual tests, with "vaccinated" it has already become "offered a vaccination" and "first dose".

I'll rejoice when rejoicing is due.

 

[Andy]

Interesting article on the BBC that suggests that the recent spike might not actually be due to Christmas

Did we see a Christmas coronavirus spike?

Christmas gatherings were cut back but was there still an impact on Covid cases?

www.bbc.com

 

[Andy]

The June target became September when Raab was asked about it this morning. And that's an "offer" of the "first dose". Beware of wording when it comes to govt targets - with testing it became "testing capacity" rather than actual tests, with "vaccinated" it has already become "offered a vaccination" and "first dose".

I'll rejoice when rejoicing is due.

Well the June date didn’t come from a Minister, it came from a “source”.

Call me cynical, but it’s likely they think it is possible by June, but announce September, then when it’s done by June it’s a bit of spin for them.

 

[James Wood]

Report in the Telegraph claims that the government aims to have all adults in the UK vaccinated by the end of June. Soon to be vaccinating 5m people a week.

I’ve given the government a lot of criticism over their lockdowns, but if they deliver taht absolutely fair play to them

As most people know I’ve been a massive critic of how the government has handled many things about the pandemic. But I have to say that so far things are going extremely well so credit where credit is due. A superb example of public and private sector working together to benefit all.??

 

[Knutsfordian]

Putting cynicism to one side along with anti government feelings, this time it really looks like the whole of UK resources and skills are coming together to deliver this vaccination programme. Yes there will be questions about second doses, who has missed out, why wales is slower than the rest of the UK and mistakes will be being made, BUT the bigger picture is all important so for once lets just let the good folks get on with their jobs and wait for that most important call.

The pressure for a relaxation of lockdown will grow and I am sure its high on the agenda for politicians and businesses alike, but lets hope that this is the last one and just show a bit of patience til it happens

 

[Ben]

Well the June date didn’t come from a Minister, it came from a “source”.

Call me cynical, but it’s likely they think it is possible by June, but announce September, then when it’s done by June it’s a bit of spin for them.

I reckon June will be the ‘secret’ aim but they won’t want to admit that or put themselves to a target they may not meet.

 

[Knutsfordian]

Interesting to see why testing is no longer the political issue it once was

Virus tests conducted​

Daily​

579,194Value: 579194 — Abstract information: Daily number of new virus tests conducted on Tuesday, 19 January 2021.
Click for additional details.

Total​

62,956,912Value: 62956912 — Abstract information: Cumulative total number of virus tests conducted up to Tuesday, 19 January 2021.
Click for additional details.

PCR testing capacity​

817,011

 

[Andy]

Interesting to see why testing is no longer the political issue it once was

Virus tests conducted​

Daily​

579,194Value: 579194 — Abstract information: Daily number of new virus tests conducted on Tuesday, 19 January 2021.
Click for additional details.

Total​

62,956,912Value: 62956912 — Abstract information: Cumulative total number of virus tests conducted up to Tuesday, 19 January 2021.
Click for additional details.

PCR testing capacity​

817,011

The UK has tested more people per capita than every country in the world, except Isreal and Denmark.

Certainly an impressive testing system in place.

So the whole the whole argument that “cases are rising because the government aren’t testing enough” is nonsense

 

[Alan M]

Testing in itself is useless without an effective system of tracing, without subsequent isolation, and without adequate financial support measures in place to enable those traced and asked to isolate to do so. TTIS is not and never has been "impressive".

Case numbers could have been better contained in the intital stages by better testing (as evidenced by the approach in other countries who adopted the WHO mantra of test test test), but at this stage numbers don't rise because there isn't the testing. They rise because (amongst other factors) the other three elements are woefully inadequate.

 

[Ben]

I see that Johnson has hinted at a mid-February easing of lockdown restrictions.

 

[Knutsfordian]

Testing in itself is useless without an effective system of tracing, without subsequent isolation, and without adequate financial support measures in place to enable those traced and asked to isolate to do so. TTIS is not and never has been "impressive".

Case numbers could have been better contained in the intital stages by better testing (as evidenced by the approach in other countries who adopted the WHO mantra of test test test), but at this stage numbers don't rise because there isn't the testing. They rise because (amongst other factors) the other three elements are woefully inadequate.

When you have nigh on 600,000 tests in one day the systems required to deliver that need some building - especially when the tests didn't even exist in numbers at the start of the pandemic

With regard to track and trace it was apparent that from mid march onwards, the numbers were so huge no amount of track, trace and isolation could be monitored. Professor pants down was on the radio a few days back admitting as much. Its why the borders were not closed at the start of the pandemic. BY the time it was realised how bad it could be - it already was !!

It is pretty much the same now. People in this country just don't want to be tracked and traced.

 

[Ben]

Cases down hugely today compared to last Monday. Last Monday saw 37k cases compared to 22k today.
Here’s hoping Johnson starts to ease the lockdown come mid-February when hopefully the most vulnerable groups are vaccinated.

 

[James Wood]

Cases down hugely today compared to last Monday. Last Monday saw 37k cases compared to 22k today.
Here’s hoping Johnson starts to ease the lockdown come mid-February when hopefully the most vulnerable groups are vaccinated.

Are you mad? Have you not learned one thing from the last 12 months? Release the lockdown too early and cases, hospitalisations and deaths go through the roof.
Eat out to help out = Let’s kill lots more people.

 

[Ben]

Are you mad? Have you not learned one thing from the last 12 months? Release the lockdown too early and cases, hospitalisations and deaths go through the roof.
Eat out to help out = Let’s kill lots more people.

I’m only going off what Johnson himself has said about considering a relaxation of some rules. That’s what was said at the start of this lockdown and what he said on Monday. Vaccinate the most vulnerable groups by mid-February and think about relaxing some restrictions three weeks after at the start of March when vaccine protection has kicked in. Johnson’s words. A number of MPs in the Covid Recovery Group also back the start of a re-opening from March.

Accept that there’s a number of factors you consider before easing lockdown, including cases, hospital admissions, deaths and new variants. However, if it’s possible to ease the lockdown then they surely should be looking at doing it, as business, jobs and mental health etc matters here also. You say about cases, hospitalisations and deaths going through the roof, but the difference this time is we have vaccines which we’ve been told is the way out of this. If they work then hospitals admissions and deaths should plummet and rising cases won’t be as much concern as infections won’t be serious.

Completely accept that we won’t be able to have a more significant easing until the spring when the over 50s are vaccinated, but surely some tentative steps at the very least should be made into easing the lockdown until then?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying open everything up. Simply saying we could take a few steps to start easing the lockdown before a more substantial reopening in the spring/summer.

Regarding Eat out to help out, do you have any proof that this scheme killed lots of people? I don’t seem to recall a large rise in infections until the schools opened again in September followed by the unis. Cases shot up after the second lockdown and most hospitality was closed.

 

[Ben]

Pfizer looking very, very effective...

In week after 2nd Pfizer vaccine shot, only 20 of 128,000 Israelis get COVID

https://www.timesofisrael.com/week-...nly-20-of-128000-israelis-get-covid/#comments

 

[Alan M]

Regarding Eat out to help out, do you have any proof that this scheme killed lots of people? I don’t seem to recall a large rise in infections until the schools opened again in September followed by the unis. Cases shot up after the second lockdown and most hospitality was closed.

Of course there's no proof that any of the govt' s botched policies (or lack of policies) directly led to any deaths, but with the underlying cases running at around 1000 a day over the summer while everyone was being told the virus had magically disappeared, you are surely not that naive as to believe that encouraging people to mingle indoors simply to ensure that section of businesses got some money was not a factor in keeping the virus simmering.

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'We blame Eat Out To Help Out for our tragedy'

Covid's second wave has hit one part of south Bradford badly, and residents have an idea where the problem began.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Andy]

The amount of infections being traced to hospitality was never much over 5/6%. Infections skyrocketed when schools went back.

 

[Ben]

Of course there's no proof that any of the govt' s botched policies (or lack of policies) directly led to any deaths, but with the underlying cases running at around 1000 a day over the summer while everyone was being told the virus had magically disappeared, you are surely not that naive as to believe that encouraging people to mingle indoors simply to ensure that section of businesses got some money was not a factor in keeping the virus simmering.

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'We blame Eat Out To Help Out for our tragedy'

Covid's second wave has hit one part of south Bradford badly, and residents have an idea where the problem began.

www.bbc.co.uk

Clearly it would have contributed somewhat to the spread of the virus, but as Andy alludes to in his post, infections went up the roof when schools reopened, not because of schemes like this and hospitality in general. The facts back that yet hospitality will continue to get scapegoated by some.

At least Eat out was trying to help a struggling industry, one which has been hit particularly hard during this pandemic. No doubt many pubs won’t reopen and a lot of people will lose their jobs and already have.

So James and his claim that this scheme killed lots of people can’t really be substantiated, yet he calls me mad for daring to hope for a few restrictions to ease!

 

[Knutsfordian]

The bottom line is 100,000 people have died (unfortunately with more to follow) and they died through social interaction with other people - in effect we have done it to ourselves. Despite all the known dangers we have mixed with other people and now we know the consequences. To absolve our consciences we want to blame Boris, the government, the schools, public servants or anyone else we can point at. And amid all these accusations there is great hypocrisy- none more so than Piers Morgan going on Xmas holidays to Antigua, whilst berating the lack of travel bans and quarantine for international arrivals. Whipping up half the population into a state of frenzy, whilst pretending none of this applies to himself, is both politically dangerous and gives succour to those who continue to behave with disregard for others. And there are plenty - for example take all those who continue to travel for pleasure but don't see themselves as part of the problem.

This morning I have been reading posts on social media, and broadcast on the news, accusing people of murder and of having blood on their hands. For goodness sake! In the fullness of time, there will be an inquiry into all these events, but trying to destroy people in this way is nothing short of reprehensible. The media stood accused of destroying Caroline Flack, but that abuse is as nothing compared to what is happening now for our politicians and public servants (people like Chris Witty). These people deserve our support to get through this crisis, there will be time aplenty for shooting the wounded later with Captain Hindsight leading the charge.

 

[Ben]

As expected lockdown has been extended until March 8, but Boris is looking to open schools from after that date and start to ease other restrictions.

Lockdown easing plan to be published on February 22. During the first lockdown it took nearly two months to get back to normal from the start of the plan. Will be interesting to see if it takes this long this time.

Is he mad James?